Lenovo Vs. HP Vs. Dell PC sales showdown in 2025 so far

While IDC sees a PC refresh underway, recent vendor earnings show commercial buyers are leading consumers in buying devices ahead of the Windows 11 migration and to mitigate potential tariff-driven price hikes.

The three biggest PC makers announced quarterly earnings at the end of May, giving analysts a peek inside the Windows end-of-life-driven product refresh that is projected to replace the devices bought during the pandemic-led PC boom.

While the refresh is arriving, it isn’t yet a tide lifting all boats as commercial buyers are ahead of consumers, said HP CEO Enrique Lores during the company’s May 28 second quarter earnings call.

“In personal systems, revenue grew eight percent in constant currency above our expectations driven by strong commercial performance,” he said. “As expected, we saw continued strength in AI PC demand and the Windows 11 refresh and we believe that momentum will carry forward. We drove share gains year over year, in commercial PCs particularly in premium, workstation, AI PC and gaming.”

Dell – which has been projecting a PC refresh since June 2023 – said its arrival is still “behind prior cycles,” but is expected to come in the coming quarters.

“While the PC refresh remains behind prior cycles, we are seeing indicators that the installed base is upgrading to new Windows 11 PCs, many of them AI PCs,” Dell COO Jeff Clarke said. “The consumer market remains challenged. Consumer revenue declined 19 percent. And the industry pricing remained competitive.”

Lenovo’s Intelligent Device Group – which includes PCs, tablets and smartphones– saw its sales grow 13 percent. The company said that increase was driven by the sale of premium PCs. Following its May 22 earnings, Ryan McCurdy, who’s in charge of North American sales for Lenovo, told CRN the refresh is coming in now and it’s going to continue well past the Windows 11 refresh date.

“The installed base is enormous. We have hundreds of millions globally ready to refresh, and so that is still the opportunity,” he said during a video call. “Has it pushed to the right? Yes, but October is the date. And I do not think October is the end. I think there is already see some momentum in the business today.”

In terms of overall PC sales worldwide, Needham, Mass.-based industry tracker IDC ranks Lenovo first with a 24.5 percent market share. HP Inc. comes in second with 19.9 percent share and Dell ranks third with 14.4 percent.

IDC said last month that it projected the PC market will grow four percent this year, led by the Window’s 11 device migration and in spite of tariffs: “After recording strong results in the first quarter of 2025, IDC is increasing its traditional PC forecast for 2025 — this comes despite the significant impact that US tariffs have had on its trading partners’ market sentiment. Global PC volume is now expected to reach 274 million in 2025, growing +4.1% over the prior year.”

The analysts predict those sales could cool in coming quarters.

“Beyond 2025, IDC forecasts a slight contraction in 2026 due in part from volume stabilization following Windows 11 migration and to a more difficult comparison given a stronger market in 2025,” the company predicts.

Here’s how the three vendors stack up in terms of PC revenue, total sales and market share as well as earnings per share and projected PC growth.

Quarterly PC sales

Lenovo: US$11.8 billion, up 12.9 percent year over year

HP: US$9.02 billion, up 7 percent year over year

Dell: US$12.5 billion, up 5 percent year over year

Dell saw its PC sales grow five percent, year over year on sales of US$12.5 billion. That growth was driven by its commercial business, which rose nearly 9 percent, from US$10.1 billion in the year ago quarter to US$11.04 billion this year. On the consumer side, however, Dell’s PC sales plummeted 19 percent year over year, dropping from US$1.81 billion to $1.46 billion.

Lenovo’s PC division — the Intelligent Devices Group, which includes smartphones and tablets — grew nearly 13 percent year over year on sales of US$11.8 billion. That segment further enlarged its PC market leadership and expanded the gap to the number two player year-on-year by a further point, the company said.

HP saw overall PC sales in the quarter grow to US$9.0 billion, or seven percent year over year. The surge was driven by commercial sales, which rose to US$6.75 billion, up 10 percent in that time frame, while consumer sales came in at about US$2.25 billion, down 7 percent.

Latest quarterly company revenue/run rate

Lenovo: US$16.9 billion, up 23 percent ($67.6 billion run rate)

HP: US$13.2 billion, up 3.3 percent ($52.8 billion run rate)

Dell: US$23.4 billion, up 5 percent ($93.6 billion run rate)

Dell’s total revenue in its most recent quarter was up five percent as the company saw a surge in demand for its AI servers, combined with market leading storage products. During the company’s first quarter for the fiscal year, revenue was US$23.4 billion.

Lenovo revenue grew 23 percent year on year to US$17 billion, with double-digit year-on-year revenue growth across all businesses, including a whopping 63 percent growth in server and storage revenue.

HP saw 3.3 percent revenue gains across the entire company for US$13.2 billion in sales, led by growth in personal systems which include not just PCs, but monitors, mouse and peripherals. It also draws revenue from its printing segment, which includes a personal and commercial print supply business.

PC market share (Jan 1 to March 31)

Lenovo: 24.1 percent

HP: 20.2 percent

Dell: 15.1 percent

According to Needham, Mass.-based industry tracker IDC, as a whole PC makers increased their global shipments during the first quarter by 4.9 percent, with a total of 63.2 million devices.

“In a first quarter still relatively untouched by tariffs, the entire ecosystem attempted to accelerate the pace of deliveries to avoid the first round of US tariffs and expected volatility for the remainder of the year,” Jean Philippe Bouchard, research vice-president with IDC's Worldwide Mobile Device Trackers, said in a statement. "Evidently, commercial demand remained strong in the first quarter, but the new round of US tariffs announced on April 2nd could have a direct inflationary impact on the PC market that could result in delayed IT spending for the remainder of the year”

From January 1 to March 31, Lenovo dominated the category – which includes workstations, notebooks and desktops – with 15.2 million units shipped, reaching a 24.1 percent share of the market, according to IDC numbers released April 8.

HP Inc. shipped 12.7 million devices, holding on to the number two spot with a 20.2 percent share.

Dell Technologies meanwhile sent 9.5 million PCs into the market to claim third place with a 15.1 percent share overall.

Earnings per share

Lenovo: 73 cents, down 1.29

HP: 42 cents, down 19 cents

Dell: $1.37, flat

Lenovo – which trades in Hong Kong – saw its earnings per share decline US$1.29 year over for 73 cents per share.

HP Inc., which trades on the New York Stock Exchange, said its GAAP EPS was down 31 percent from 61 cents last year to 42 cents.

Dell, meanwhile, said its EPS came in flat year over year at US$1.37.

Projected PC growth ahead

Lenovo: mid single-digit growth

HP: low single-digit growths

Dell: low-to-mid single-digit growth

While Lenovo, Dell and HP are each at different stages of their fiscal years, each one predicted the same levels of growth for their PC divisions.

During the May 22 fourth quarter earnings call, Lenovo IDG President Luca Rossi said the company expects “mid, one-digit growth for the total PC market,” which he said is in line with IDC and other analysts, and is also in line with data it sees currently around Windows’ activations on PCs.

HP Inc. expects its PC business to grow in the low single digits in the second half and for the full calendar year, said HP CFO Karen Parkhill during the May 28 second quarter call.

On the May 29 call, which reflects Dell’s first quarter, CFO Yvonne McGill said Dell expects the PC refresh cycle to continue, as the install base upgrades to new devices, which should result in low to mid single-digit growth.