Japan takes different path in quantum computing race: No freezing required

NTT and OptQC's collaboration targets 1 million qubits by 2030 using optical approach that operates at room temperature with fraction of competitor power consumption

When Japan's government designated 2025 as the "first year of quantum industrialization," it sent a clear message: quantum computing isn't a distant future technology anymore. It's infrastructure that needs to be built now.

The challenge is determining which technological path to pursue. Current quantum computers demand extreme operating conditions—cryogenic temperatures, vacuum chambers, and power-hungry cooling systems. These constraints make widespread deployment impractical and expensive. NTT Corporation is placing a different bet.

On November 18, company President and CEO Akira Shimada signed a collaboration agreement with OptQC to develop optical quantum computers that operate at room temperature using light-based qubits instead of superconducting circuits or trapped ions.

The roadmap is ambitious: 10,000 qubits by 2027, 1 million qubits by 2030, and ultimately 100 million qubits. If successful, the approach could provide Japan—and the broader Asia-Pacific region—with quantum computing infrastructure that doesn't require specialized facilities or massive power consumption.

The energy equation: Why operating conditions matter

The differences between quantum computing approaches aren't just technical—they determine whether these machines can move beyond research labs into practical deployment.

According to presentation materials from Shimada and OptQC Representative Director and CEO Hiroshi Takase, the power consumption disparities are dramatic. Superconducting methods require 25 kilowatts and cryogenic vacuum systems.

Neutral atom approaches need 7 kilowatts with complex cooling. Ion trap methods consume 2 kilowatts with large-scale control equipment. Optical methods require only hundreds of watts at normal temperature and pressure.

"The optical approach enables scalable and sustainable expansion of qubit counts needed for general-purpose quantum computing requiring only 1/10 to 1/100 the energy of other methods," Shimada stated during his presentation at NTT's R&D Forum’s press conference.

Beyond power consumption, room-temperature operation eliminates specialized facilities. Standard data centers could theoretically house optical quantum computers—critical for deployment across Asia-Pacific markets with varying infrastructure capabilities.

From hundreds to millions: An aggressive timeline

The collaboration comes with specific, measurable milestones. As of 2025, systems worldwide remain at hundreds to thousands of qubits. By 2027, NTT targets 10,000 qubits in Japan. By 2030, the partnership aims for one million qubits—with Shimada indicating plans to "ultimately reach 100 million qubits ahead of others."

To understand these targets' ambition, consider quantum computing's progression: from single qubits in 1999 to 5 qubits in 2016, reaching 1,121 qubits in 2023. The jump to one million represents exponential scaling that would leapfrog current leaders if achieved on schedule.

Why a million qubits matters

Qubit count determines solvable problem complexity. Systems with 100-1,000 qubits handle research applications like simple simulations. At 10,000-100,000 qubits, specialized problems become accessible—optimization, quantum chemistry, machine learning.

But "general-purpose applications with major societal impact will require between 1 million and 100 million qubits," according to NTT's materials. The real-world implications are staggering.

Presentation materials outlined calculation time comparisons showing drug discovery tasks requiring "years close to infinite" on conventional computers could complete in 12 days with 100 million qubits. Fertilizer production from nitrogen in air—solving global food challenges—would take "10 trillion × one trillion years" conventionally but just four days with one million qubits.

The materials emphasized conventional computers "face limits in the complexity they can handle" when problems require testing many possibilities. As complexity grows, "the number of required calculations increases exponentially." Quantum computers explore "all escape routes simultaneously," fundamentally changing computational complexity.

NTT's optical advantage: Decades of R&D

Shimada's confidence stems from NTT's optical communications research dating to the 1990s. The company's technology timeline shows wavelength multiplexing development in 1990, optical amplification in 2013, and photonics-electronics convergence devices targeted for 2028.

"Building on decades of optical technology research, NTT has applied its expertise to quantum light sources," he said. The company demonstrated quantum light sources in 2024 and, with OptQC and RIKEN, "realized an internet-accessible photonic quantum computer in 2024."

NTT's approach leverages spatial multiplexing, time multiplexing, and wavelength multiplexing—techniques refined over decades in optical communications. These enable what the presentation describes as "exceptional scalability" with potential to increase qubit counts without proportional infrastructure or power increases.

The collaboration with OptQC divides responsibilities strategically. NTT contributes optical communication technologies including quantum light sources, advanced optical amplification and modulation technologies, and wavelength division multiplexing capabilities. OptQC brings optical quantum computer development technologies and systems.

Four pillars of development

The partnership focuses on four areas: creating multiplexing and error correction technologies for optical quantum computers; developing use cases and algorithms; building the optical quantum computer supply chain; and implementing practical deployment strategies.

Commercial applications will emerge gradually. Near-term (2025-2027), specialized applications in quantum chemistry and optimization for research institutions. Medium-term (2027-2030), expanding to industrial applications as systems reach 10,000-100,000 qubits, particularly in pharmaceuticals and materials science.

Long-term (2030+), transformative applications in drug discovery, climate modeling, and logistics optimization at one million+ qubits.

Technical realities and open questions

Significant challenges remain. The materials acknowledge "as of 2025, most systems worldwide remain at the level of several hundred to several thousand qubits, still far from general-purpose use."

Key hurdles include achieving error tolerance at scale, ensuring qubit connectivity as counts increase, producing optical components with quantum-level precision consistently, and coordinating millions of optical qubits simultaneously. The companies haven't disclosed current qubit counts or error rates, making it difficult to assess proximity to the 2027 milestone.

The quantum computing industry has largely converged around three approaches—superconducting circuits, trapped ions, and neutral atoms—all with proven track records but extreme operating requirements. All have demonstrated quantum capabilities and attracted billions in investment. The question is whether optical computing's theoretical advantages can overcome their accumulated lead.

Strategic stakes for Japan and APAC

For Japan, quantum computing leadership could define the country's role in 21st-century technology infrastructure. The "first year of quantum industrialization" designation signals serious national commitment, with significant funding directed toward quantum technology development.

For Asia-Pacific countries navigating technology dependencies amid geopolitical tensions, NTT's partnership offers potential sovereignty advantages. Room-temperature operation could enable deployment in regions with varying power infrastructure—critical as AI already consumes massive data center power.

The 10-100× energy efficiency advantage addresses growing constraints for technology deployment across the region. Overall, the collaboration establishes a five-year timeline with clear milestones. By 2027, the 10,000-qubit Japan system should demonstrate whether the scaling approach is viable.

By 2030, the one-million qubit target will either validate the optical approach or reveal fundamental barriers. With US$3 billion in annual R&D investment—30% of NTT's total profit—the company has committed substantial resources.

The 2030 target is less than five years away. By decade's end, the industry will know whether Japan's bet on optical quantum computing represents a technological breakthrough or an ambitious miscalculation.