Tariff concerns yet to slow down global PC shipments

Global PC shipments rose 8.4% YoY in Q2 2025, driven by the approaching Windows 10 sunset, adoption of AI PCs, and stronger commercial demand, according to a report by Counterpoint Research.

As the global tariff situation continues to see uncertainties in the supply chain, PC manufacturers have taken all the necessary precautions to ensure they can have a continued supply of products to customers around the world. From having global manufacturing hubs to local suppliers, the PC industry recorded an increase in shipment despite the impending tariffs.

While China has been the ideal manufacturing hub, PC vendors and their manufacturing partners, particularly original design manufacturers (ODMs) and electronics manufacturing services (EMS) providers, have intensified efforts to shift production capacity away. Alternative manufacturing hubs in countries like Vietnam, India, and Mexico have emerged as alternatives.

According to Counterpoint Research’s preliminary estimates from its PC service, the global PC shipment market grew 8.4% YoY in Q2 2025. Not only does this mark the highest YoY increase since the COVID-19 pandemic drove market demand, it also shows that PC manufacturers have well executed their supply chain options to avoid any delay in shipments.

Driving the demand for new PCs is the approaching Windows 10 end-of-life, in which Microsoft will no longer be providing the needed updates to support the program. Apart from that, there is also the increasing adoption of AI PCs as businesses continue to deploy more AI workloads in their organizations.

The report also stated stronger commercial demand caused by a pull-in during early in the quarter as the market prepared a tariff and inventory buildup in anticipation of the upcoming back-to-school demand as driving factors.

While most OEMs have been in a ‘wait-and-see’ mode, some have adjusted their manufacturing locations as tariff concerns continue to loom. The growth in commercial demand for PCs was also higher compared to consumer demand.

Strong demand for Lenovo PCs

Looking at the breakdown in shipments of PCs in the quarter, Lenovo leads the market, accounting for roughly 25% of total shipments. This was followed by HP and Dell, with both brands reporting stable enterprise demand but facing pressure from smaller OEMs’ aggressive pricing. Apple continued to see solid MacBook sales, supported by the refreshed M4 series models, although its shipment growth was more subdued than in previous quarters.

Interestingly, Minsoo Kang, a senior analyst at Counterpoint Research, believes PC shipments will likely weaken YoY starting from H2 2025 due to the tariffs as most of the shipments were based on orders before the tariff situation unfolded.

At the same time, Kang also foresees demand for AI PCs to become a significant tailwind in 2026.

“We expect more than half of the laptops shipped in 2026 onward to be an AI Laptop,” commented Kang.

Meanwhile, David Naranjo, Associate Director at Counterpoint Research stated that the US market remains the most important market for AI PCs to demonstrate their capabilities and the best market to sell advanced AI-enabled PCs.

“The tariff policy roller coaster will likely cause consumers and enterprises to pause their AI PC purchases in 2025, which in turn will suppress growth for this segment. The lingering global economic uncertainty also poses a downside risk to our 2025 PC shipment forecast of low-single-digit YoY percentage growth,” said Naranjo.

PC vendors are aware of the impending consequences, which is why almost all of them have diversified their supply chain, especially in manufacturing and packaging. The report also stated that as PC vendors proactively address these challenges, they will be strategically positioned to navigate the complex dynamics of the global supply chain and strengthen their competitiveness in a rapidly changing environment.